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Although self-/un-supervised methods have led to rapid progress in visual representation learning, these methods generally treat objects and scenes using the same lens. In this paper, we focus on learning representations for objects and scenes that preserve the structure among them. Motivated by the observation that visually similar objects are close in the representation space, we argue that the scenes and objects should instead follow a hierarchical structure based on their compositionality. To exploit such a structure, we propose a contrastive learning framework where a Euclidean loss is used to learn object representations and a hyperbolic loss is used to encourage representations of scenes to lie close to representations of their constituent objects in a hyperbolic space. This novel hyperbolic objective encourages the scene-object hypernymy among the representations by optimizing the magnitude of their norms. We show that when pretraining on the COCO and OpenImages datasets, the hyperbolic loss improves downstream performance of several baselines across multiple datasets and tasks, including image classification, object detection, and semantic segmentation. We also show that the properties of the learned representations allow us to solve various vision tasks that involve the interaction between scenes and objects in a zero-shot fashion. 

ABSTRACT Image simulations are essential tools for preparing and validating the analysis of current and future wide-field optical surveys. However, the galaxy models used as the basis for these simulations are typically limited to simple parametric light profiles, or use a fairly limited amount of available space-based data. In this work, we propose a methodology based on deep generative models to create complex models of galaxy morphologies that may meet the image simulation needs of upcoming surveys. We address the technical challenges associated with learning this morphology model from noisy and point spread function (PSF)-convolved images by building a hybrid Deep Learning/physical Bayesian hierarchical model for observed images, explicitly accounting for the PSF and noise properties. The generative model is further made conditional on physical galaxy parameters, to allow for sampling new light profiles from specific galaxy populations. We demonstrate our ability to train and sample from such a model on galaxy postage stamps from the HST/ACS COSMOS survey, and validate the quality of the model using a range of second- and higher order morphology statistics. Using this set of statistics, we demonstrate significantly more realistic morphologies using these deep generative models compared to conventional parametric models. To help make these generative models practical tools for the community, we introduce galsim-hub, a community-driven repository of generative models, and a framework for incorporating generative models within the galsim image simulation software. 

Abstract Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages. 

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org/ ) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.